India’s digital leap outpaces early forecasts

In 2010 and 2011, when global consulting firms and policy institutions tried to map India’s digital future, the consensus was optimistic. India, they believed, would emerge as one of the world’s largest internet markets, powered by mobile connectivity, expanding broadband and a growing IT industry.

- ABHINANDAN MISHRA

Fifteen years later, one conclusion stands out: they correctly predicted the direction of India’s digital journey, but underestimated its scale.

The benchmark study of the period, McKinsey & Company’s 2012 report Online and Upcoming: The Internet’s Impact on India, estimated that India had around 120 million internet users in 2011, representing barely 10% internet penetration. etration. It projected that India would have 330-370 million internet users by 2015, with an accelerated scenario touching 500 million if rural adoption picked up.

The report estimated that the internet's contribution to GDP would rise from 1.6% (US$30 billion) in 2011 to 2.8-3.3% (around US$100 billion) by 2015. It also projected that internet-led growth could generate 16 million additional jobs, while 75% of new internet users would come through mobile devices.

At the time, those projections were considered ambitious. By 2026, they appear conservative.

According to the latest official assessment released on the completion of 11 years of Digital India, India now has more than 109 crore internet users, while 106.58 crore broadband subscribers were recorded as of March 2026. Internet users have grown by 285% over the past 11 years, making India one of the world’s largest connected societies.

The gap between what was projected and what actually happened becomes even more striking when the past decade is examined.

What changed after 2015?

Digital India, launched on 1 July 2015, marked the transition from the digitisation of government programmes to the creation of nationwide digital public infrastructure.