Official predicts inflation uptick in Q4

Prices for some goods rose this year

- PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

The inflation rate is likely to return to positive territory in the fourth quarter of this year, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO).

Regarding the potential for deflation, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of TPSO, said headline inflation has been negative for four consecutive months, from April to July.

This decline was primarily attributed to supply-side factors, particularly decreased fuel prices, which hold aweight of 7.59% in the inflation basket and declined by 10.2% year-on-year in July, according to TPSO. This trend was driven by a prolonged fall in global crude oil prices.

In addition, prices for vegetables, which represent 2.21% of the basket, dipped by 7.07% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices, accounting for 2.11%, fell by 12.1%. These declines were attributed to contrasting weather conditions.

Agricultural output improved this year due to favourable weather, unlike in 2024, when El Nifio and La Nifia weather patterns negatively affected production, noted the office.