TECH POLYMARKET'S ELECTION ACCURACY MADE SHAYNE COPLAN A STAR-BUT AN FBI RAID POINTS TO TROUBLE AHEAD

IN NOVEMBER, Shayne Coplan had a week he'll remember for the rest of his life: He got a phone call from the highest echelons at Mar-a-Lago. He went on TV for the first time. And his New York City apartment was raided by the FBI.

- JEFF JOHN ROBERTS

The eventful few days underscore the precarious position of both 26-year-old Coplan and his startup Polymarket, the prediction market that became a household name during the presidential campaign-forecasting the outcome far more accurately than most polls.

Speaking with Fortune a few days after the vote, Coplan expressed elation about what he had achieved. "I've learned that anything is possible," he said. "Turning dreams into reality has never felt more tangible, and luckily, I'm a dreamer. The world is shaped and changed by optimists." Soon after, on Nov. 13, optimism turned to defiance: The FBI seized Coplan's phone and laptop, and he tweeted that the raid was driven by a vindictive administration upset by the election outcome.

As of this writing, no indictment had been filed, and it was unclear why Coplan might be investigated-though it's noteworthy that Polymarket is under a federal consent decree not to offer certain prediction contracts to U.S. citizens. Coplan and his attorneys have asserted he has done nothing wrong; they and Polymarket declined to discuss the investigation.

But how the inquiry unfolds may determine whether Polymarket consolidates its place as an important force in politics or whether Coplan has flown too close to the sun and opened the door to competitors.

POLITICAL GIANT, VC DARLING

On election night, Donald Trump's team grew increasingly jubilant as Polymarket charts-reflecting the activity of tens of thousands of bettors worldwide-showed the spread between their candidate and Kamala Harris growing ever wider until it became a chasm. The next day, Trump allies congratulated Coplan on social media, with at least one inner-circle figure phoning him personally.