The Wake Up Call

THE UNITED Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consists of scientists who can by no stretch of the imagination be called radical or activists.

- Sunita Narain

These are conventional scientists working in conventional research institutions—mostly from the rich world. When they issue an urgent warning about the dire and catastrophic impacts of climate change if the global temperatures exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels, then we must take it very seriously.

Also because, what IPCC says in its just released report on 1.5oC is probably an underestimate of the kind of dangers that await a warmed world—many scientists say the report has not taken into account the spiral of events, called tipping point, which will be unleashed as temperatures rise. The news is not good. It’s time we understood this and stopped questioning the science of climate change.

IPCC has revised its previous findings; it now says the impacts of global warming will be greater than what was previously anticipated at a temperature rise of 1.5°C. It should not surprise us. The world—particularly the poor world—is already seeing devastating impacts when the temperature increase is 1.2°C. Climate change is in our face. We don’t need science to tell us anymore that it will happen. What IPCC tells us is that the situation will get much worse, and that we must not allow the temperature to increase by 2°C.

The question then is only one: What can and must the world do to keep the temperature rise to below 1.5°C? IPCC estimates that to stay below this temperature guardrail, the world has to cut net anthropogenic CO2 emissions by 45 per cent over the 2010 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.