The Arctic Comes In From The Cold

The more that global warming reduces ice cover in the Arctic, the greater the need for multilateral arrangements to govern trade, resource extraction and other issues across the region. Without forward-looking cooperation, a zero-sum scramble will ensue, leaving everyone worse off.

- Carl Bildt

Whether we are heading for a future of cooperation or of increasing confrontation in the Arctic remains to be seen. But it is already clear that the region will command far more attention than it has in the past.

The main reason is, of course, climate change, which is accelerating the rate of ice melt and causing arctic temperatures to rise twice as fast as the global average. Owing to their pace and scale, these changes have obvious geographic, economic and strategic implications. As the vast ice sheet that spans the region has melted, new fossil-fuel reserves and shipping routes have opened up, including the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Russia’s Siberian coast and the Northwest Passage through Canada’s northern archipelago. However, the same trend has also fueled the loss of permafrost, threatening billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure that may soon be standing in mud instead of on firm ground.