Poll: Inflation likely cooled in June

Analysts’ June inflation rate estimates

- By Katherine K. Chan

PHILIPPINE INFLATION likely eased for a second straight month to a three-month low in June as lower oil and rice prices offset higher electricity rates, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 6.6% for June inflation, slower than 6.8% in May but faster than 1.4% a year ago.

This falls within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 6%-7% projection for the month.

If the median estimate holds true, this would be the second month in a row that inflation cooled. It would also be the slowest headline print in three months or since the 4.1% in March.

However, June may also mark the fourth consecutive month that it breached the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the June inflation report on Tuesday (July 7).

Radhika Rao, a senior economist at DBS Group Research, said the headline print likely cooled to 6.6% amid lower global and domestic energy prices as well as cheaper key food items.

"We expect Philippines' inflation to moderate to 6.6% (year on year) in June 2026 from 6.8% in May, but stay above the 2-4% policy target," she said. "Price pressures likely slowed on the back of a decline in global oil benchmarks (consequently domestic pump prices) and easing food (rice, meat, etc.)." In June, global oil prices eased below the $100-per-barrel level seen during the height of the Middle East war. It dropped by 21% from 19% in May, marking the steepest monthly decline since the 55% seen in March 2020, according to Reuters.

Local fuel retailers also cut pump prices by as much as P7.50 per liter for gasoline and up to P21.19 per liter for diesel, while kerosene prices posted a net increase of P1.98 per liter during the month.