Virus' Variant Ways

The third year of the global COVID-19 outbreak begins with a new variant, much like the earlier Delta variant that emerged at the start of the second year. Delta caused deadly waves, but the new variant, named Omicron, is more transmissible and shows signs of breaching acquired immunity. The world should be braced for a prolonged pandemic

- Taran Deol, Kiran Pandey, Jack Mcbrams, Lerato Matheka, Busani Bafana, Manuel Mucari 

THERE WAS a lull in covid-19 cases across the world as pandemic neared completion of two years. Some had even started harbouring hopes that covid was perhaps nearing its end. A century ago, the Spanish flu pandemic (1918-20) had shown a similar trend, when it declined towards the end of its second year. But it did not end and continued for another year. Almost on cue, as covid-19 enters its third year in November 2021, there is a consistent rise in new cases and deaths across the world.

Pandemics, however, do not always follow patterns. Their trajectory depends on the mutations of the pathogen. While the world hoped for respite, sars-cov-2—the virus that causes covid-19—was changing. The indications of this change were first reported by South Africa and explain the current rise in covid-19 numbers.

In the week preceding November 19, South Africa was reporting just 200-300 cases a day. The increase in covid-19 cases in Gauteng—the South African province now reporting a majority of the country’s cases—was also insignificant. Gauteng had already seen a wave of the Delta variant in July 2021 and 60-80 per cent of its population had begun showing antibodies in serology tests. But the numbers continued to rise for days, startling scientists. Between November 21 and November 28, covid-19 cases in Gauteng rose by over 360 per cent.