Russia-Ukraine war continues to wreak havoc on global markets

AGRIBUSINESS PERSPECTIVE

- Hamlet Hlomendlini

It is not the first time, nor will it be the last, that global agricultural markets have experienced supply-side shocks and price spikes.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, food export bans by many countries, high energy prices, and droughts in numerous food-exporting countries in 2007 and 2008 caused nominal food prices to double between 2002 and 2008.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdowns disrupted global supply chains, making it costlier and more difficult to ship products and obtain critical farming inputs.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, however, has taken things to another level. By the middle of May, Ukraine's exports had ceased completely, with global agricultural commodity prices more than doubling as a result. The countries most vulnerable are those that rely on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia to feed their citizens, or fertiliser from Russia and Belarus to produce their own food.

EVER-INCREASING FOOD PRICES

Food prices were already high before Russia invaded Ukraine, and the war is driving them even higher. Commodities most affected are wheat, maize, edible oils, and fertilisers. Global commodity markets face upside risks due to reduced grain supplies, higher prices for energy, fertiliser and fuel, and trade disruptions.

This has left farmers around the world concerned about their profit margins and the future of their operations.