Tough times ahead for SA's grain farmers

Grain farmers face a difficult year ahead with lower grain prices and high production costs

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The slowdown in the international economy since 2022 and relatively positive production conditions have resulted in lower international food prices.

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization food price index, a weighted index of dairy, grain, oil, sugar, and meat product prices, decreased from 144,5 in 2022 to 122 in 2024 and then recovered slightly to 128,8 in September 2025, still 11% below the 2022 peak.

Cereal prices decreased from the 2022 average of 149,5 to the September 2025 level of 105 - a decrease of 30%.

Globally, record grain crops are expected for the 2025/26 season with all-time record production expected for maize and wheat. Prices are expected to remain at, or near to, current levels.

SOUTH AFRICAN OUTLOOK

The South African summer grain industry recovered in the 2024/25 season after the disastrous 2023/24 season.

Total maize production increased to 16,2 million tons in 2025, up from the 12,9 million tons produced in 2023/24.

Good rain in the eastern part of the summer grain area enabled grain farmers to start planting, while the western areas are still waiting for rain. Currently the wheat harvest is in progress, and the latest estimate by the Crop Estimates Committee predicts a wheat harvest of at least two million tons, slightly more than in 2024.