QUALITY STOCKS MAY OUTPERFORM

Rural consumption is poised to revive, supported by expanding organised retail, better infrastructure, rising household incomes, and government schemes

- NILESH SHAH

The festive and ongoing wedding season, along with strong rural consumption, are boosting sectors like apparel, vehicles, and two-wheelers, while government spending needs to rise significantly to meet Budget targets and fuel infrastructure projects. These factors are supporting economic growth and the equity market.

The combined spending on festivals, weddings, and government is estimated to see a huge increase from ₹4.2 lakh crore in the first half (H1) of FY25 to ₹6.9 lakh crore in H2FY25. Additionally, higher rural wages are supporting discretionary spending, boosting demand for consumer goods.

Private sector capex is reviving with an improvement from ₹5.4 lakh crore in FY21 to ₹9.4 lakh crore in FY24. This was led by government incentive policies and demand recovery across sectors like oil & petrochemicals, power, telecom, and automobiles & ancillaries.

Meanwhile, as a result of the US-China tariff war, the former has reduced Chinese imports sharply from November 2016 to July 2024, benefitting India as an alternative manufacturing base.