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Catastrophic polling for Labour as Wales on course for new leader
Western Mail
|January 14, 2026
LABOUR is projected to fall to a catastophic defeat in May's Senedd election while Plaid Cymru becomes overwhelmingly the largest party, the latest Senedd election poll has shown.
The latest YouGov poll for ITV suggests that Labour's slide is continuing while Plaid surges further ahead of Reform ahead of the vote in May.
Analysis of the poll suggests Labour has less support than the Green Party and may have as few as eight out of the 96 seats in the Senedd after May.
People were asked who they plan to vote for in the Senedd election in May, and the results echo what we have seen before - that Labour is in serious trouble in Wales, and Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will be the two largest parties.
Plaid Cymru's projected vote share has increased from 30% in the last equivalent poll in September, to 37%. Reform's support has dropped in this poll from 29% in September to 23% now.
The Green Party, which currently has no representation in the Senedd, jumps to the third biggest party with 13% support, leapfrogging Labour, which is projected to win just 10% of the votes, level with the Conservatives.
The Greens, under this projection, would go from no Senedd members to having 11. Labour would sink to single figures, with just eight.
This story is from the January 14, 2026 edition of Western Mail.
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