The surge of FDI to lead from Greater Ho Chi Minh City era

At first glance, the headlines coming out of Vietnam’s largest economic engine are nothing short of extraordinary.

- By Vu Viet Linh Vice president, Institutional Research, Maybank Investment Bank

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Ho Chi Minh City reportedly surged by over 200 per cent on-year in the first quarter of 2026, dwarfing the national average growth of 43 per cent.However, a closer look at the ledger reveals a more nuanced story of administrative consolidation, structural maturation, and an aggressive pivot toward a higher-margin, knowledge-based FDI model.

The eye-popping 200 per cent increase seems, in part, an administrative artifact. Following the landmark merger of Binh Duong and Vung Tau into the Ho Chi Minh City administrative umbrella last year, the city’s investment profile has been fundamentally reset. On a comparative basis, adjusted growth stands at a more grounded, yet still impressive, 32 per cent on-year.

While global supply chain shifts continue to favour Vietnam, we see Ho Chi Minh City’s current momentum is largely an “inside job”. The city has moved decisively to resolve bottlenecks in hundreds of stalled projects, unlocking billions of US dollars in previously stagnant capital. This internal push was essential to reversing a five-year cooling period that saw FDI commitment decline from an $8 billion peak in 2019 to just $3 billion in 2024.