Gujarat Polls: ABC & M

BJP favourite. But watch AAP's vote share. Don't dismiss Congress. Modi big factor. Will Morbi matter?

- R Jagannathan

With the Election Commission firing the starter’s gun for the Gujarat assembly elections, one thing is clear. The real fight is over who is best positioned to challenge the multi-decade political hegemony of BJP. Will it be AAP or Congress?

● So, it’s A (AAP) versus B (BJP) versus C (Congress).

● What will decide the outcome is the vote share performance of A.

● The big question is: Will A win at the cost of C, or both B and C, and in what proportion?

● If B loses less than C, it will sweep the elections, assuming A’s vote share does not result in significant seat gains.

However, there is now an M factor – the Morbi bridge tragedy that killed 135 people and injured many more – that could impact the outcome, either locally or regionally. While it is difficult to precisely plot the impact of this tragedy on voter intentions, there is little doubt that both Congress and AAP will be raising the issue aggressively, to BJP’s discomfiture. That’s one reason why BJP’s own M factor – Modi – rushed to commiserate with the victims and the hospitalised.

The stakes are high for every party. Congress will be seeking to re-establish its hold in large parts of the state; BJP will want to show that Modi’s bastion is solid as ever; AAP will want to show that it can make gains even in difficult political terrain.