China's key drivers and economic challenges

Chinese economists and analysts have been expressing concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, publicly.

- B.R. DEEPAK

In a customary New gued that weak domestic Eve I Year's speech on 31 consumption and declinJinping highlighted some of China's economic achievements in 2024. He said China's GDP is projected to surpass 130 trillion yuan (approximately $18 trillion) in 2024, grain production would exceed 700 million tons, ensuring food security, and the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 10 million in a single year.

Breakthroughs have been made in integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and quantum communications.

Incomplete statistics provided by the China Briefing for 2024 are: value added of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry for the year 2024 was RMB 5,773.3 billion (US$790.9 billion), RMB 36,136.2 billion (US$4,950.2 billion), and RMB 53,065.1 billion (US$7,269.2 billion) respectively. Manufacturing registered rapid growth, reaching RMB 32.09 trillion (US$4.49 trillion), marking a 10.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

The sector accounted for approximately 39.0% of the total GDP. In 2024, China's global innovation index ranked 11th, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in terms of innovation over the past decade.

Despite these excellent statistics, in the past months, Chinese economists and analysts have been expressing concerns about the health of the Chinese economy publicly. They have been instructed by the state "not to publish statements that are contrary to central government's policies" according to a report filed by the Singapore based Lianhe Zaobao.

For example, in late 2024, the social media accounts of Gao Shanwen, chief economist of SDIC Securities, and Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities were blocked after the duo criticized China's economic problems in public.

Gao highlighted issues such as high youth unemployment, stagnant consumption, and suggested that China's GDP growth might have been overstated between 2021 and 2023.