When energy gets 'boring': Oil and gas guru sees into the future of energy markets

He believes reaching net zero in carbon emissions by 2050 is unrealistic, and sees Singapore as a hub for exchanging electricity.

- Ravi Velloor Senior Columnist

The United States is leaving the field open for China to dominate in the highest-growth industry of the day - new energy - a development that will have global impact eventually.

That is the word from Mr Jarand Rystad, considered one of the foremost energy sector analysts. The 62-year-old is the founder of Norway's biggest independent energy consultancy, the eponymously named Rystad Energy.

The Trump administration has frowned upon renewables and anchored itself on a "drill, baby, drill" thrust of producing and exporting fossil fuel-based oil, gas and coal reserves while using a light regulatory touch. President Donald Trump has also emphasised withdrawing from climate commitments that he believes act as a brake on American competitiveness.

That means Biden-era concessions for offshore wind projects, for instance, are under threat. Solar panels from China, Vietnam and Malaysia once intended for American markets are being dumped on countries in Africa and South Asia.

In turn, the energy transitions in these areas of the so-called Global South are speeding up. China not only offers equipment at competitive prices, but also backs sales with financial and political support as it sets about using the green shift as a means to build global influence.

"China's impact globally will be even bigger because they get less competition in the fastest-growing industrial areas globally, which are solar, wind and batteries and EVs," says Mr Rystad, speaking to me during a visit to Singapore.

True, some American companies may speed up their projects so they can draw government concessions before the tax window closes, but the overall impact will be detrimental to long-term American power.

"Instead of competing with China for the new energy world that is going to come in any case, the US is just saying, 'Take the market please. We are withdrawing from this competition"