War of words, water and warning shots: Why India and Pakistan must avoid a bigger clash

The Indian strikes on Pakistan were never a matter of "why" but "when".

- Ravi Velloor

Since terrorists on April 22 mowed down 26 tourists — all Indians except for one Nepali — in the tourist town of Pahalgam in Kashmir, it was inevitable that the Indian government, which has accused Pakistan of backing armed insurgents who target its people, would respond in a strong way.

On May 6, when India asked its states to practise for shutdowns and lights-out nights several days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted "operational freedom" to his military to pick its targets, it was obvious that the moment was near.

Early on May 7, the widely expected missiles arrived. Pakistan reported being hit by 24 air strikes.

According to Pakistan's military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, the Indian Air Force, flying within its own airspace, launched missiles at the Punjab towns of Muridke and Bahawalpur, as well Bagh, Kotli and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Pakistan's Information Minister said his military shot down three Indian fighter jets and a drone, but its Defence Minister later raised the number of downed Indian jets to five.

Islamabad, which says it is being unfairly accused by India of the Pahalgam attack, has called for an "impartial" investigation into the gun assault, and said it will choose the manner and timing of its response.

WORRY POINTS

So far, the war of words seems more severe than actual damage.

Indeed, given the drumbeats of war over the past fortnight, many high-value targets had likely evacuated well in advance.

India's Ministry of Defence described its Operation Sindoor as "focused, measured and non-escalatory". And it explicitly stated that no Pakistani civilian or military targets were attacked.

So, it would appear neither side wants to see matters escalate.

Nevertheless, there are plenty of worry points.