US inflation, GDP would be same under Harris or Trump: Poll

WASHINGTON – The outlook for inflation and growth in the US would be roughly the same whether Ms Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election, though economists in a Bloomberg survey give the US Vice-President the edge on the economy overall.

- 

A popular inflation metric favoured by the Federal Reserve – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – is expected to rise an annualised 2.2 per cent on average over the next four years under either candidate, according to the survey of 29 economists done from Oct 7 to 10.

The median forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) projects a 2 per cent annualised growth rate on average, no matter who wins.

Both are slightly above the Fed's long-run estimates, which target 2 per cent PCE inflation and a 1.8 per cent advance in GDP. That is part of the reason why interest rates would stay relatively elevated under either candidate, though economists see lower borrowing costs in a Harris administration compared with Trump.