Trump Tariff Pause: We May Be in the Early Stages of a World Minus One

The start-stop approach to tariffs could see the US increasingly isolated as countries reduce economic dependence on an untrustworthy player.

- Lin Suling

What a difference a few hours can make. With Trump tariff rates now leveling out across the board, Singapore's relative advantage—stemming from its low 10 percent baseline tariff rate—has evaporated.

Looming US tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which together account for roughly 10 percent of our gross domestic product and employ at least 60,000 people, are poised to inflict significant damage.

From a global perspective, with US President Donald Trump pausing most tariffs, there is some reprieve from some pain. But while stock markets have rallied, the state of chaos remains.

A LOSS OF TRUST

Mr. Trump's erratic approach to tariffs betrays a singular goal: creating panic and maintaining escalation dominance, ensuring that he holds all the cards. "A lot of times, it's not a negotiation until it is," he told reporters on April 9.

We can't say we weren't warned. Just last week, as he unveiled a long-awaited reciprocal tariff framework, the grand reveal felt more like the hasty output of an economics undergraduate pulling an all-nighter rather than a serious attempt at economic policymaking. Tariff levels seemed plucked from thin air, like a school bully inventing arbitrary sums to extort from classmates.

This underwhelming outcome should have been a clear sign: The real aim wasn't implementation, but leverage and brinkmanship. And it worked.

Stunned and anxious, many countries have blinked—cutting deals with the US, pledging to eliminate tariffs, buy American defense systems, or open up consumer markets.

A wait-and-see approach seemed pretty wise after all.

WORLD MINUS ONE