Strategic Empathy From China: Key to Asia's Accommodation of Its Rise

From intimidation in the South China Sea to dealing with defaults under the Belt and Road Initiative, China can afford to switch gears to prioritize gaining regional goodwill.

- Lim Min Zhang

In March 2024, Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Sindangan was involved in a skirmish with Chinese ships in the disputed South China Sea waters.

Chinese ships had fired water cannon and tried to block off the Philippine contingent on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, some 105 nautical miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan.

That direct clash was just one of a growing number of such confrontations between the two sides in 2024, which marked one of the most tense periods in bilateral relations. While both sides have pointed the finger, China's reputation has taken a hit from such exchanges. In recent years, Chinese actions taken to protect what it considers important national interests have created friction in the region, beyond territorial disputes.

Although some countries might have a benign view of China and its rise, others are less sure after a less than positive first-hand experience. Such incidents have fueled regional anxieties, and perhaps made it more difficult for other countries to avoid viewing China's rise with suspicion, even worry.

The distrust could color how Southeast Asia approaches China and undo the goodwill earned from China's valuable role as an engine of regional growth and prosperity. China's ascendance as a superpower is not preordained, and less of a given with sharpened pressure from the US with a Donald Trump return to the presidency, rising trade tensions over Chinese overcapacity, and a slowing economy expected in 2025. In this unfriendly environment, it could benefit from having Southeast Asia in its corner.

Beijing should hence consider how being a great power does not come conferred with the right to an unconstrained exercise of raw power and leverage. It could require instead empathy for smaller countries.

GROWING MILITARY MIGHT