Israeli strikes to protect Druze in Syria could lead to 'second Lebanon'

Move could destabilise Syrian government and worsen situation at Israel's borders

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON - It would seem that no sooner does one war in the Middle East end than another begins.

By hitting key government targets in neighbouring Syria on July 16, Israel has commenced a new military campaign with far-reaching and dangerous consequences for the entire region.

Israel has justified its bombings of targets, including the presidential palace and Ministry of Defence in the Syrian capital Damascus, as essential to the Jewish state's security.

But the outcome of such Israeli attacks is to destabilise an already fragile Syrian government, resulting in an even more dangerous situation at Israel's borders.

The United States has moved swiftly to prevent the situation from deteriorating.

"We have engaged all the parties involved in the clashes in Syria. We have agreed on specific steps that will bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight," Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on social media platform X on July 16, calling on all parties to "deliver on the commitments they have made".

The roots of the current violence go back to early December 2024 when President Bashar al-Assad, whose family had ruled Syria for over half a century, was overthrown.

Mr Assad was an implacable enemy of Israel. But he was also Israel's preferred enemy, because he was regarded as predictable, and he kept his country's patchwork of religious and ethnic groups under tight control.

So, while most of Syria's neighbours breathed a sigh of relief when Mr Assad was overthrown, the Israelis were disturbed by this political change in a neighbouring country.

Israeli anxiety rose even further when Mr Ahmed al-Sharaa, the man who led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham - a militia formerly affiliated to the Al-Qaeda terror group - became Syria's new president.