China's GDP Growth of 5.3% in H1 Beats Forecasts, But Tougher Times Ahead

Growth in second quarter slows amid trade tensions, prolonged property slump

- Michelle Ng

BEIJING - China's economy grew 5.3 per cent in the first half of 2025, official data showed on July 15, defying gloomy forecasts even as ongoing trade tensions with the United States slowed momentum in the second quarter.

The headline gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the first half of 2025 announced by China's National Bureau of Statistics is broadly in line with the government's full-year growth target of "around 5 per cent".

After a strong start to the year with 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter, the growth in the second quarter slowed to 5.2 per cent, as trade tensions and a prolonged property slump weighed down the world's second-largest economy.

On a quarterly basis, China's GDP grew 1.1 per cent in April to June, easing from a 1.2 per cent gain in the previous quarter.

China has so far sidestepped an abrupt downturn, thanks to a fragile trade truce struck with the US in mid-May and government policy support. But analysts warn that the second half of 2025 could prove tougher, as exports lose steam and consumer confidence remains low.

June's trade figures received a lift from the tariff reprieve, which saw duties on Chinese goods cut to around 55 per cent - down sharply from a punishing 145 per cent.

Exporters raced to ship out orders ahead of an August deadline, giving trade a temporary boost.

China's central bank and financial regulators in May had unveiled a slew of policy steps, including cutting interest rates and injecting additional liquidity into the market, to shore up the economy.