‘3 superpowers by 2050’

Tony Blair on how world leaders’ voices can be heard loud and clear

- Clement Tan

Governing leaders should prepare to navigate a complex world order with three superpowers in ways that may enhance their own positions and interests.

That was the frank assessment of former British prime minister Tony Blair in an interview with The Straits Times on Sept 23, while he was in Singapore for the annual Asia Summit of American think-tank Milken Institute.

"You have got to decide where your country fits in the world, because it is going to be a world that is going to be multipolar, (where there) will be, in my view, by the middle of this century, three superpowers effectively: America, China and probably India," said Mr Blair, who is a self-professed centrist.

"Therefore, you are going to have to build strong alliances that enable you to talk to these three superpowers with some level of, you know, equality," he added.

As it stands, the International Monetary Fund and World Economic Forum are projecting that India may grow to be the world's third-largest economy by the end of this decade, eclipsed by only the US and China.

The geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is now also manifest in economic and industrial policy.

The US has not only barred Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technology, but also slapped tariffs on Chinese products in several strategic sectors ranging from electric vehicles and batteries, to critical minerals, solar cells and medical products.

Under the current Biden administration, the US has sought to do that by placing a greater emphasis on alliances and minilaterals for security and economic reasons.

Minilaterals are small groups of nations coming together to work on specific issues and shared interests.

India is among America's friend-shoring partners - despite being friendly towards Russia - as technology firms seek to diversify their supply chain and manufacturing beyond China.