$263m a year, rice supplies part of North Korea's deal with Russia

SEOUL - North Korea is believed to have dispatched thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, with thousands more, reportedly paid around US$2,000 (S$2,600) a month, anticipated to join by the year's end, according to South Korean intelligence and military officials.

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While the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in its latest analysis that the costs of North Korea stepping into the war seem to outweigh the benefits, other experts in Seoul say Pyongyang can now expect Moscow to have its back in a possible contingency on the Korean peninsula.

The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a think-tank affiliated with the NIS, said in a report on Nov 1 that North Korea's decision to send troops to Russia a few weeks before the US presidential election appears to be based on the calculation that a Donald Trump victory would lead to an early end to the Ukraine war.

"The US under Trump could pull out of Ukraine, which would undermine one of the main pillars of the new Cold War-like structure that Pyongyang has worked hard to build in recent years in its close cooperation with Moscow," the INSS said in the report.

"Given the uncertain prospects of war after the US election, Pyongyang quickly moved to bind Moscow to its foreign strategy in advance."

In a report released on Oct 22, the INSS argued that North Korea would lose value to Russia once the war subsides. When that point comes, North Korea, while ensnared in sanctions and ties strained with traditional ally China, could no longer count on Russian assistance, the think-tank said in the report.