Achieving energy security and net zero by 2050: Insights from a comprehensive study

ON WEDNESDAY, November 5, 2025, a significant study titled “South Africa’s Energy Sector Investment Requirements to Achieve Energy Security and Net Zero Goals by 2050” was released by the Development Bank of Southern Africa, the National Planning Commission, the Presidential Climate Commission, and National Treasury's Southern Africa - Towards Inclusive Economic Development programme.

- Thomas Garner

Taken together, the work provides a quantified pathway to a secure, least-cost electricity system that can be financed at scale if policy aligns with timely project execution.

The modelling sets out three pathways to 2050 and costs them end to end, including annual capital requirements, operating costs, and grid expansion. It is not a generation-only view. The authors pair the power-system results with economy-wide assessments using a computable general equilibrium model and a micro-study of Mpumalanga, where the transition pressures are most acute due to coal dependence.

In the preferred “Green Industrialisation” pathway, the 2030 mix remains transitional. Coal provides about 40 percent of energy (roughly 104 TWh), solar about 30 percent (around 77 TWh), wind about 23 percent (about 59 TWh), nuclear about 6 percent (around 15 TWh), hydro about 5 percent (around 14 TWh), and gas about 5 percent (about 12 TWh). By 2040 coal falls to about 10 percent, while solar approaches half the mix and wind rises to about 40 percent, supported by utility-scale batteries to manage variability.

Through 2050 the system deepens electrification with high variable renewable energy and storage, and retains gas mainly for flexibility rather than baseload. On combined capital and operating costs, this pathway is the most economical and environmentally credible.

The investment profile is clear. Across 2025 to 2050, discounted system investment in generation and grid ranges from roughly R3.6 trillion in the Green Industrialisation case to about R4.2 trillion in a fossil-heavier baseline.