Absa maintains growth forecast amidst global economic uncertainty

ABSA Group has signalled a steady outlook for South Africa's growth despite a rocky start to the year.

- YOGASHEN PILLAY

In its latest Quarterly Perspectives report for the third quarter of 2025 released on Thursday, Absa said available data suggested a more encouraging second quarter, with an anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.

Absa is forecasting 2025 GDP growth of 0.9%, just 0.1 percentage point lower from its last Quarterly Perspectives in May. Assuming no further external shocks, it expects real GDP growth to improve to 1.6% in 2026 and average 2.1% in 2027-29.

Miyelani Maluleke, senior economist and head of South Africa Macroeconomics Research at Absa Group, said that the external environment was showing some resilience, but uncertainty was high.

“Economic activity has looked more resilient than we expected at the time of our last Quarterly Perspectives, with the IMF having since revised its global economic growth forecasts slightly higher,"Maluleke said.

"Export commodity price moves have also largely favoured SA, delivering supportive terms-of-trade. Ongoing trade policy uncertainty is a big challenge. For SA, more difficult relations with the US on trade and diplomacy remain a key risk”

Maluleke added that the South African Reserve Bank’s (Sarb) shift to a 3% inflation anchor was an important macroeconomic policy reform.