IRRI fine-tuning tool to assess costs of rice self-sufficiency goal

The Los Baños-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) is refining a modelling tool that will help policymakers and rice industry stakeholders chart the future of the country's rice industry amid growing demand for the staple.

- By JASPER EMMANUEL ARCALAS

IRRI's Shyam Basnet told The STAR that they are working on improving the international agency's modeling tool that projects the costs of achieving rice self-sufficiency for the country.

One of the measures being considered is the inclusion of the economic costs of attaining the elusive dream of the Philippines to produce all or nearly all of its rice requirement locally.

The modeling tool created by IRRI presents the various pathways on how the country will achieve rice self-sufficiency in the context of food security and environmental costs.

The Excel-based tool takes into account various factors including demand, population, incomes, animal feed needs, yields, trade, land and climate impact.

The model provides three paths for the country's rice situation by 2050: business-as-usual, national target and ambitious.

In the first scenario, rice imports will remain at around 15 percent under current diets and productivity levels. This will require little additional land for production but would result in minimal progress in achieving self-sufficiency.

The national target path scenario sees imports being reduced to 2.6 percent following national diet recommendations and productivity targets. In this case, the self-sufficiency goal is achieved by the government but at the cost of extensively expanding rice production areas, which Basnet noted would increase risks to biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions.