Fate of Taiwan and the Philippines intertwined

There is a proposal that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines should be considered as a single theater of war.

- ELFREN S. CRUZ

These four countries are at the frontline of the impending conflict with China. It is clear that the fate of Taiwan and the Philippines is intertwined. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would confront the Philippines with one of its gravest foreign policy decisions. Letting Taiwan fall to Beijing would create a tremendous challenge for the Philippines. If Taiwan falls, the Philippines could well be the next victim in this conflict.

The major question in this possible invasion would be the reaction of the United States. During his campaign, Donald Trump said that if China invades Taiwan, the United States should bomb Beijing. However, since his election, Trump has been more focused on Europe and the Middle East.

My own analysis is there is no immediate threat of an invasion of Taiwan. China is undergoing internal economic problems and an invasion, even if successful, would be a tremendous drain on China's resources. However, countries threatened by China's rise, like the Philippines, need to invest in security measures, no matter what happens in and around Taiwan.

Taiwan has been preparing for a potential China invasion. It has spent a significant share of its resources on advanced equipment like F-16 fighter jets, Abrams tanks and submarines. Its defense strategy, it seems, would be to prevent China from quickly seizing the island. By dragging the Chinese Army into a long and costly war, the strategy seems to eventually force China to seek a political settlement.