BSP may cut rates by mid-2024

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may start cutting interest rates as early as June this year, according to economists.

-  LAWRENCE AGCAOILI

ING Bank senior economist Nicholas Mapa said the central bank would likely retain its hawkish stance in the near term, possibly keeping policy rates untouched until the US Federal Reserve carries out its own rate cut.

As widely expected, the BSP Monetary Board decided to leave interest rates unchanged during its first policy meeting this year after raising key policy rates by 450 basis points between May 2022 and October 2023 to tame inflation and stabilize the peso.

After emerging as the most aggressive central bank in the region, the BSP kept interest rates steady in November, December and January as inflation eased to its lowest level in three years, at 2.8 percent in January from a peak of 8.7 percent in January 2023.

With the inflation downtrend, the BSP lowered its risk-adjusted inflation forecast for this year to 3.9 percent from 4.2 percent, but raised its view for 2025 to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent.