Violent crime stands at a low, yet people's experiences tell a different story

In a Britain that feels politically voiceless, it's no surprise that lawbreaking takes on an exaggerated aspect

- Kenan Malik

Is Britain becoming a more violent nation? “Lawless”, as Nigel Farage insists? The horror of the mass stabbings on an LNER train last week has made that question seem even more urgent.

The answer is both straightforward and complicated. The latest report from the Cardiff Violence Research Group, using data from hospital admissions, concludes that “over the past two and a half decades... serious violence in England and Wales has decreased substantially”. This assessment fits with the findings of the Crime Survey for England and Wales, generally regarded as the best national measure of crime, that incidences of violent crime have fallen by more than 80% since the mid-1990s. Times columnist Fraser Nelson has collated much of the data that shows that while certain forms of crime, such as shoplifting, have soared, violent crime has declined (though there remains considerable debate about whether this is also true of sexual violence).

Nevertheless, there is an element of truth in the arguments of politicians like Farage. They recognise that while the statistics may not support their claims, people’s experiences seem to. YouGov tracking data shows three times as many people see crime as the most important issue facing the country as they did 10 years ago.