Orbán's challenger hopes that Pride will come before a strongman's fall. He just can't say so...

Hungary's opposition leader can't speak out in favour of the banned Budapest march for fear of losing votes when he tries to break the right's 15-year grip next year

- Kim Willsher Budapest & Flora Garamvolgyi

At an amusement park on Óbuda island, in the middle of the Danube in Budapest, half a dozen members of the city's LGBTQ+ community are posing for a photoshoot, wearing spangly outfits and glittering makeup. The sun is shining and the atmosphere is joyful and defiant: ban or no ban, they will march at Budapest Pride on Saturday.

"We'll all be there," says journalist and activist Ádam András Kanicsár. "For sure."

Now celebrating its 30th anniversary, Budapest Pride has become a potent symbol of Hungary's polarised politics in the run-up to parliamentary elections next year.

In an unprecedented move, police in Budapest have banned the event, citing child protection issues, in what is seen as the culmination of prime minister Viktor Orbán’s campaign to promote conservative pro-family “traditional values”.

For many of his opponents, Budapest Pride, which is expected to attract an estimated 40,000 people, including as many as 70 members of the European Parliament, is a celebration of liberal European values. It has become a focus for those hoping for the end of Orbán’s 15-year grip on the country.

Those hopes are pinned on Péter Magyar, the 44-year-old leader of Hungary's largest opposition party Tisza (Respect and Freedom), and a member of the European Parliament.

His promises to boost the ailing economy by unblocking frozen EU funds, eliminate corruption, address the cost of living crisis and overhaul health and education systems, are popular with Hungarian voters. Tisza was only launched last year but polls suggest that 51% of those who have decided who to back in next year's election would vote for them — 15% more than those who would vote for Fidesz, and an unprecedented challenge to Orbán.

On Pride, however, Magyar, a former member of Fidesz, remains silent. To win next year he must retain core conservative voters while also attracting a younger, more liberal electorate.