Fears of a return to war within days as Gazan airstrikes dent peace hopes

Fears of a return to war in Gaza are intensifying this weekend, with faltering diplomatic efforts and almost daily airstrikes by Israeli forces in the devastated territory.

- Jason Burke Jerusalem & Malak A Tantesh Gaza

The territory is mired in a 'grey zone' of uncertainty as the ceasefire has stalled and neither side seems willing to compromise.

There has been relative calm in Gaza since a ceasefire for prisoners deal between Hamas and Israel came into effect in January, pausing 15 months of conflict. However, the first phase of that agreement expired more than a week ago and a second phase has stalled, leaving Gaza plunged into a “grey zone” of uncertainty.

“I feel happiness and relief that the fighting has been stopped for so long but right now, I am really anxious the war will start again. I follow the news continuously,” said Ranan al-Ashqar, who works in the education ministry in Gaza City.

Many observers see only a narrow and unlikely pathway to any durable peace. “We are in a grey zone. I am pessimistic about the potential going forward because the political calculations for the Israeli leadership do not favour a ceasefire that would involve an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza,” said Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Some analysts fear a return to wider hostilities within days as Israel seeks to pressure Hamas into new concessions.

Others suggest that a large-scale ground and air operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “within weeks” is more likely if no new deal is reached. Last week, senior IDF officers told Israeli journalists that if Israeli forces launched a renewed offensive, it would be massive and very destructive.

So far, the IDF has limited itself to a series of airstrikes across Gaza, though these appear to be increasingly frequent.