Fertility rate falls below 2, India nearing a 'Kerala' challenge

As fertility rate dips below replacement level, India will have lower proportion of working-age people taking care of a much higher proportion of dependents

- M S VIDYANANDAN @T'Puram

WITH fertility rate declining, India is facing up to a challenge that Kerala had confronted over three decades ago. The latest report from the Sample Registration System showed that in 2023 the nation's overall fertility rate dipped to 1.9 from the preceding year's 2. It also revealed that the total fertility rate (TFR) for rural India touched 2.1, which is the replacement rate — where one generation replaces itself, thereby leading to population stability.

Since 1971, Kerala's fertility rate has shown a steady fall in comparison to the country's rather gradual decline. In that particular year, TFR for India and Kerala were 5.2 and 4.1 respectively. A decade later, in 1981, the national fertility level stood at 4.5 whereas Kerala's rate slumped to 1.8. By 1991, Kerala recorded below-replacement fertility, 1.8, while the national average stood at 3.6.