CAN KEMI KEEP THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY AFLOAT IN LONDON?

With Reform ahead, members split on Kemi Badenoch as leader, former Tory campaign manager Aaron Newbury still finds many in the party optimistic about a revival in the capital

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‘We’re going through an absolutely bloody awful situation at the moment,’ said Susan Hall, the Tory Party's 2024 mayoral candidate. It seems as though she’s accurately captured the mood of many in the London wing of the beleaguered party.

Once a dominant force in the capital, the Conservatives have seen their presence reduced from 21 MPs to just nine, all clinging to the fringe of the outer London “doughnut”. 2024 saw the party lose its “crown jewels”, Kensington and Westminster, in a wave of Labour wins. And polling suggests the party is still in choppy waters, with Nigel Farage’s Reform overtaking the Conservatives in London for the first time, polling at 19 per cent to the Tories 17 per cent.

For some this is not a surprise. Trust in the party image has been pummelled, with one Kemi Badenoch supporter suggesting, since the Afghan leak, that it’s “probably best if we shut up for a bit longer”. The leak, dubbed the “most expensive email in history”, led to successive Tory grandees covering for an MoD mishap, which left thousands of names revealed to the Taliban and lumbered Britons with a £7bn bill to rehouse those exposed. Resulting in a fiery Prime Minister’s Questions and former Tory ministers having to defend themselves in national papers, the scandal has hardly helped a brand that Badenoch says is in urgent need of “renewal”.

Last year's mayoral vote, held shortly before the general election, provided little comfort. Sadiq Khan became the first Mayor in the office's 25-year history to secure a third term. He swept in on over a million votes, increasing his share by 43.8 per cent, while Hall came in second with 32.7 per cent. Can they turn it around after an annus horribilis? Some within the party see reasons for hope.