India's Russian oil import rebound in Oct. after dip in previous quarter

India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.

- BY S VENKAT NARAYAN

Imports from Russia slid from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd in September.

However, tanker-tracking data for early October suggest a rebound: shipments of Urals and other Russian grades to India have picked up pace, supported by renewed discounts amid slack demand in Western markets and shipping flexibility.

Preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed October imports tracking around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of around 250,000 bpd from the previous month (though the current month data is subject to revision).

The data pertains to the period prior to US President Donald Trump's October 15 statement claiming that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to stop Russian crude imports. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, however, said he was not aware of such a phone conversation.

Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, believes Trump's statement was more likely pressure tactics linked to trade negotiations rather than a reflection of an imminent policy change.

"Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India's energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons," he said.

Indian refiners, too, said they have not yet been asked by the government to stop Russian oil imports.

India turned to purchasing Russian oil sold at a discount after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.