When it's Reeves vs Bailey, I know who my money's on

A difference of opinion has surely emerged between the chancellor and the governor of the Bank of England.

- JAMES MOORE

Last month, Rachel Reeves confidently asserted that “the economy has turned a corner” in a BBC interview. A couple of weeks later, she repeated that view. “The most recent GDP (gross domestic product) numbers, 0.7 per cent growth in the first quarter, the strongest in the G7, and recent business surveys... are very positive," she told a Confederation of British Industry dinner. "That is good news and does show we are beginning to turn the corner."

Andrew Bailey, however, expressed a very different view at the annual conference of another business group, the British Chambers of Commerce. "We think the UK economy will grow at a more moderate pace over the coming quarter," he said - a view reflected by the Bank of England's GDP forecast, which it cut in half in February to a sluggish 0.75 per cent for 2025 as a whole.

He indulged in one of his word salads when he explained his view, saying: "The unexpected strength in the first quarter was driven by strong outcomes for volatile components of GDP in the monthly figures for March."

In layman's terms, he was trying to say that the surge in the early part of the year was driven by one-offs - the most obvious being the unexpectedly strong performance manufacturing recorded, as firms hurried to deliver their products to the US ahead of Donald Trump's tariffs.