What is the OBR and does it control the economy?

Kemi Badenoch calls it an emergency Budget”.

- JOHN RENTOUL

The Treasury calls it the spring statement”. But the only reason Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will address the House of Commons on Wednesday is because, by law, the Office for Budget Responsibility OBR) is required to produce two forecasts a year of the public finances.

One was at the time of the Budget in October. It accompanied Reeves’s announcement of record tax rises, and it predicted the effect they would have over the next five years.

The OBR’s second forecast will be published on Wednesday. But it will not be accompanied by a “fiscal event” (Treasury code for a Budget). Reeves has promised that there will be only one Budget each year, in the autumn. This was intended to give businesses a more predictable fiscal environment, and it was meant to contrast with the chaos of the Conservative years, when tax policy seemed to change every five minutes.

However, the OBR forecast will show that Reeves is off track to meet her fiscal rules, so she is expected to make a statement to explain how she will get back on track. The Treasury insists that she will not be announcing any changes to taxes – and so it will not be a fiscal event. But the Conservatives will continue to call it an emergency Budget because they want to draw attention to the missed targets from just five months ago, and the policy changes needed to stay within the fiscal rules.

Doesn’t this give the OBR too much power?