We need to talk about how climate affects immigration

Last year, Antonio Guterres, the cautious speaking UN secretary general, warned that rising sea levels threaten “a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale”.

- ANDREW GILMOUR

Soaring temperatures will have a similar effect, as unprecedented heat levels make homes uninhabitable and lands uncultivable.

The world needs to wake up to a new “triple nexus” between climate change, conflict and migration that is likely to become a dominant feature of international relations – and one with very domestic ramifications. Climate change is a contributory cause of both conflict and migration; while migration is a result of both climate change and conflict.

Two years ago, it was estimated that of the record number of 100 million forcibly displaced people in the world that year, onethird were caused by weather-related phenomena such as droughts, floods, storms and extreme heat. By 2050, that figure is likely to be dwarfed as a result of more intense and more frequent disasters – some estimates exceed 1 billion migrants.

Many of those forced to move because of climate change will remain in their own regions. But many will move to more temperate climates and richer regions – first and foremost Europe. But if one million arrivals could convulse the liberal political settlement in much of Europe in 2015, what would 10 million do – let alone 100 million?