The German election is a test of Trump's impact on Europe

Europe thought it was better prepared for a Donald Trump presidency the second time around, but it clearly had little idea of the hurricane about to head east. The way Trump has exercised power since entering the White House has been dizzying. It has distressed much of the European and British establishment, while lending new dynamism to the political right – the actual right, that is, not its liberal European rendition.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

You have only to consider the right-wing pow-wow that was the conference of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) in London this week. Meet the right as a rising political force, which may well be set to grow for as long as Trump is in power and as long as Trumpism endures.

But what of continental Europe? Could it be that Trump is changing the political dynamics here as well, to the point where the right could become dominant across the region? To an extent, the views brought together by the ARC are an AngloSaxon phenomenon. But you could also argue that, in much of Europe, we are almost there.

The right was successfully creeping across Europe well before Trump 2.0 came along. Giorgia Meloni won power in Italy in 2022; there are what are widely regarded as populist governments of the right in Hungary, Slovakia and now Austria, and there would also be such a government in Romania had the election not been annulled. The far-right Freedom Party topped the polls in the Netherlands in 2023 and is part of a four-party coalition.

The far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) is the main opposition in several regions in Germany, after heading last year’s polls, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is the main opposition in the French parliament, following Emmanuel Macron’s ill-judged summer election.

But there remains a big constraint on far-right parties being elected to government in France and Germany, which can be summed up as history. Voters in France have repeatedly shrunk from electing a far-right president or parliament, despite coming near, and those German regions where the AfD has topped the polls face the opprobrium of the wider electorate, with huge “Never Again!” protests every recent weekend. Could the Trump effect change this? There may be a preliminary answer as early as this Sunday night.