Reform could make fools of themselves if they win power

Probably the worst thing that could happen to Nigel Farage this week would be that Reform UK wins all the six regional mayoralties and 37 local and county councils that are up for grabs in Thursday’s elections.

- SEAN O'GRADY

It would force his policy-free populist party of protest into a party of power – and would show this bunch of “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, as someone once called them, to be as clueless as they actually are. They don’t have a clue about how to help the people who vote for them – often as not as a fairly desperate protest – and they need to be exposed as the charlatans they really are.

That won’t happen – but Reform will do well, if the polls are to be believed.

The local elections are helpful to them because they can concentrate their still-modest resources on key wards, in a way they can’t so easily in larger, parliamentary constituencies. Such is the fragmentation of voting now that some of their candidates could be in charge of entire cities and counties, on little more than a quarter of possible votes cast, taking into account the traditionally low turnouts – not much more than one in seven of the adult residents in the area.

The first-past-the-post system, which the Tories brought in for the mayoralties, may not do them any favours. Andrea Jenkyns in Lincolnshire and Luke Campbell in Hull and East Yorkshire look to have the best shouts, with Arron Banks having an outside chance of coming through the middle of a split progressive vote in the West of England. They might get into some kind of power-sharing arrangement with the Tories in the counties, too – but Doncaster is Reform’s best bet to overturn Labour control.

And then what?