Putin's peace talks no-show doesn't mean it's all over...

For many, the biggest question surrounding planned peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul was whether Vladimir Putin would turn up. We now have the answer: he hasn’t.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, accused Russia of sending “stand-in props”. But absence may not be Putin’s final answer.

When the talks were first announced by Donald Trump a week ago, the Russian president – who had called for “direct talks, without pre-conditions” – had been directly challenged by Zelensky, who said he would be prepared to take part, but only if Putin was there in person.

Putin, for his part, had been non-committal. Contrary to some reports, he never said he would go but never said he wouldn’t, either. It was only when the composition of the Russian delegation was announced on the evening before that it was finally clear that he would be staying at home.

But there should be two qualifications.

It was always highly unlikely that Putin would take part in talks announced at such short notice. All national leaders – with the possible exception of Trump – expect a certain amount of preparation, in terms of protocol and substance, for any talks they take part in, especially outside their home country. Putin and the Kremlin always expect a great deal of groundwork, including lower-level preparatory talks – foreign minister level is usual in the latter stages – to have been done. That way, the whole agenda is pretty much wrapped up in advance, to avoid unwelcome surprises.

Putin is well aware of Zelensky’s gift for public relations and the widespread sympathy he enjoys abroad. All this would make him doubly wary of possible traps. The early call for a 30-day ceasefire on all fronts from Trump, which Zelensky reluctantly embraced, was one such.