Putin gambling that Nato's response is fearsome rhetoric

On the face of it, the intrusion of Russian drones into Polish airspace overnight would appear to be an open and shut case for invoking Nato's famous Article 5, which, as commonly summed up, means that an attack on one is deemed an attack on all and warrants a corresponding response.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

This guarantee is much of the reason why, after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the newly independent states of eastern and central Europe wanted to join the alliance, and why Ukraine is so keen to do so now. Nato and Article 5 are seen as the gold standard of security guarantees.

Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, was quick to warn that his country is at its closest to open conflict since the end of the Second World War. The incursion into Polish airspace was, he said, “a test Nato has to answer”.

When he reported to parliament a couple of hours later, this had been reduced to the charge that 19 Russian drones had entered the country’s airspace, with “up to four” drones shot down by the Polish, Italian and Dutch jets sent to intercept them - the first time Russian military hardware has been shot down over the territory of a Nato country. The European Union called it a “reckless” violation by Russia. For Keir Starmer, it was a “barbaric attack on Ukraine” and an “egregious and unprecedented violation”.