Don't trust Putin to stick to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine

A pause could simply allow the Russian leader to regroup and to shatter Ukraine's wartime unity

- Mark Almond

There is something sad, even ominous, about the official Ukrainian endorsement of the American ceasefire proposal after 10 days of intense pressure from the White House. Kyiv insists that it is happy that the “ball is in the Russians’ court”, to use Marco Rubio’s phrase. That phrase has been repeated by EU leaders from Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen downwards.

Consensus in politics is usually a sign that a mistaken course of action has been agreed upon. Naturally, Ukrainians are relieved that the daily slaughter of their troops at the front and the nightly bombardments of their cities could be paused – at least for a month. Privately, many Russians may share that sentiment.

But a ceasefire is not peace. Sometimes, it does not even mean the shooting stops. Remember how, in 2015, fighting in southeast Ukraine was halted by a European-mediated ceasefire in Minsk. That was the first of two big and several smaller agreements.