Waiting in the wings No regicide yet as Tory rivals bide their time

When Kemi Badenoch was knocking on doors in her Essex constituency in the run-up to the last election, she was confronted by a former Tory voter who told her: "I don't know what the blue rosette you're wearing means any more.

- Pippa Crerar Eleni Courea Peter Walker

While she went on to retain her seat, Badenoch's majority was slashed by almost 25,000 and the Conservative party as a whole sustained its worst defeat in parliamentary history.

Her allies say ever since that day she has been thinking about how to redefine what Conservatives stand for and turn the page after a tumultuous chapter for the party, one that has left its reputation in tatters.

The Tory leader feels that this week, when the Conservatives gathered for their annual conference, she has done that. Her problem is whether it will make any difference.

Badenoch arrived in Manchester at the weekend amid gloomy warnings that her party - languishing at just 16% in the polls and rapidly losing support to Reform UK - was facing oblivion.

Political analysts reported that in focus groups across the country, barely anyone was able to name a single thing she had said or done since becoming leader. "The biggest risk for the Tories is that they are drifting into irrelevance," one said.

One disgruntled Tory MP has even set up a countdown clock on the social media platform X of the days left until party rules allow rivals to mount a challenge. On the first anniversary of Badenoch's leadership, 2 November, her critics will be able to submit letters to trigger a contest.

Rivals are waiting in the wings. Foremost among them is Robert Jenrick, who has made little secret of his intentions. "He reeks of naked ambition," said one shadow cabinet colleague. "It's the sunk cost fallacy: he's poured so much into it he can't give up now."