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The territory's future

The Guardian

|

October 15, 2025

Who will keep the peace - and rebuild?

Will Israel withdraw its troops? So far, Israel has pulled back from Gaza's major cities to a "yellow line" and occupies about 53% of the territory. In theory, further withdrawals will follow in two stages: first, when an international stabilisation force is mobilised, and second, to a lasting "security buffer zone".

But Benjamin Netanyahu's language in recent days has had a different emphasis. "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] remains deep inside Gaza territory and controls all of its dominating points," he said in a statement last week. "We are encircling Hamas from all directions."

Without real carrots and sticks for Netanyahu, the recent precedents for further withdrawal are not promising.

Will Hamas disarm?

Disarmament is a central tenet of the Trump plan - but on Saturday a senior Hamas official told Agence France-Presse that disarmament was "out of the question", adding: "The demand that we hand over our weapons is not up for negotiation." Even as the hostages were released on Monday, there were images of armed fighters in parts of Gaza, an apparent attempt by Hamas to reassert its authority.

None of that is surprising. Hamas has stayed in power for so long because, prior to the war, it had a virtual monopoly on the use of violence inside Gaza. And the history of its rule suggests that when the group has arms, it will seek to develop its military infrastructure.

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