Reform UK 'bullish' as polls point to Scottish success

Reform UK is celebrating "an extraordinary sense of momentum" in Scotland, as the UK's top polling expert predicts the populist-right party could end up deciding the next Holyrood government.

- Libby Brooks

The deputy leader, Richard Tice, said the mood was "bullish and optimistic" as the party held its first Scottish conference in Perth on Saturday.

Reform took 7% of the vote in Scotland at July's general election, overtaking the Conservatives in 25 seats, despite virtually no campaigning or party infrastructure there.

Last month, in a flurry of council byelections in Aberdeenshire and Glasgow, Reform gained between 12% and 25% of first preferences, while recent polling has put the party at about 10%.

Under Holyrood's proportional voting system, this could translate into up to 12 MSPs at the next Scottish parliament elections.

According to Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain's most trusted elections guru, Reform's momentum is "fundamental" to the next Holyrood election, whether that takes place in 2026 as planned or sooner.

There has been speculation this may happen if the SNP minority government struggles to pass an unpopular cuts budget.