Police warning Plan to stop use of short jail terms 'will mean more crime'

Government plans to radically change sentencing will lead to an increase in crime of up to 6% in a single year, according to police chiefs.

- Vikram Dodd

The changes, which cover England and Wales, will see a presumption against short sentences of a year or less, with community sentences used instead, and those jailed being released earlier than they are now.

The hope, which police chiefs say they share, is that offenders will experience greater efforts at rehabilitation, and in the medium to long term the changes will cut offending.

But Jason Devonport, the National Police Chiefs' Council lead for criminal justice reform, predicted an increase in recorded crime of 4% to 6% in the first year after the changes.

In the year to June 2025, 6.6m crimes were recorded in England and Wales, so such an increase would mean tens of thousands of additional crimes.

Devonport said: "We are expecting that, whilst the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of the implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending."