'Massive disruption' in worst-case climate crisis scenarios, say scientists

The worst-case impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been laid bare by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level.

- Damian Carrington Environment editor

Another scenario sees a plunge of 6C in temperature after the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, massively disrupting farming and energy needs.A second set of scenarios sets out the potential extent of extreme weather between now and 2100. These indicate that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.

"The climate extremes we have mapped aren't predictions, but they are plausible," said Nigel Arnell, a University of Reading professor who led the study. “We've now given decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen but can't afford to ignore.”

The probability of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated because of uncertainty about what action will be taken to tackle global heating and how the climate system will respond.

But the worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the building of long-term infrastructure, such as new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems, Arnell said, adding that awareness of climate risks could speed the drive to cut fossil fuel emissions.