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Inflation forecast to fall below 2% by the spring
The Guardian
|January 11, 2024
The Bank of England may be forced to bring forward the date of its first interest rate cut after three leading forecasters issued a surprise update suggesting the inflation rate will halve to 2% by April.
The consultancy Oxford Economics and analysts at Investec and Deutsche Bank have reassessed their outlook for inflation in 2024 and concluded the consumer prices index (CPI), which dropped to 3.9% last November, will fall below 2% within four months.
A slump in energy prices and the cost of oil on international wholesale markets will bring down inflation at a faster rate than the Bank of England expected when it reviewed price rises in November. The independent forecasters said a fresh review next month by the Bank was likely to follow their lead and predict a much lower path for inflation this year.
Before Christmas, members of the BOE's interest rate setting committee said lending rates would remain high during 2024 to reduce the prospect of a return to galloping price rises.
This story is from the January 11, 2024 edition of The Guardian.
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