How a Slice of Luck From Across the Border Took Liberals From Potential Disaster to Victory

Mark Carney, the economist, banker, and politician, has long professed a simple article of faith when navigating through crisis: "A plan beats no plan."

- Leyland Cecco

And his rapid ascent to Canada's top job might be taken as evidence of such preparation.

But Carney's election victory on Monday was shaped by a series of chance events that hinged more on luck and circumstance than meticulous forethought.

Half a year ago, the Liberal party he now leads was in crisis.

In late October, nearly two dozen backbench Liberal MPs signed a letter calling for then-prime minister, Justin Trudeau, to step down amid fears that his unpopularity could lead to a crushing electoral defeat. Separately, a "code red" petition circulated among grassroots party supporters calling for a secret ballot vote on Trudeau's leadership.

The Conservatives had already attempted the first of a series of maneuvers to bring down the government through motions of non-confidence, as the Tories sharpened their teeth for what promised to be a bruising federal election campaign.

The Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a populist and parliamentary attack dog, used every public appearance to demand an election, hammering the government on its ineffectual response to the country's housing shortage and cost of living crisis.