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Birthrate fall in England 'will hasten closures of schools'

The Guardian

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September 25, 2025

Declining numbers of children across England could lead to the equivalent of 800 single-form primary schools falling empty or being closed by the end of the decade, a study says.

- Richard Adams Education editor

The decline in pupils at state primary schools is mainly driven by low birthrates but is magnified in London by increasing numbers moving out of the capital or leaving the state system to move abroad or go private, according to the Education Policy Institute.

The projections come as many councils are struggling to keep primary schools open in the face of falling numbers. With school funding linked to pupil numbers, further falls will heighten the wave of mergers and closures that have already affected parts of England.

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